Net Zero by 2050: What is that going to look like for me?
The International Energy Agency released a 224 page report about what the roadmap will look like for us (not a me and you type of us, but a whole world us) (quite literally the widest definition of us possible) to reach only 1.5 degrees of warming by 2050. For reference, we are at about 1.1-1.2 degrees of warming at this point.
The report details many different sectors in which we will have to innovate and reduce our emissions, and in large quantities, so that we can reach Net-Zero. Which means zero carbon emissions. But the scenario in which we achieve that success has to take into account some of the outlying factors that will affect how we do things.
But unlike Mr. Frowny Face here is implying, this won’t be on us as much as it will be on governments.
First off is population and economic growth. Humans won't stop multiplying and they certainly will continue to strive for better lives for themselves and their loved ones.
The estimate from the report is that, "by 2050, the world’s population expands to 9.7 billion people and the global economy is more than twice as large as in 2020.” Which feels like safe enough assumptions, because the largest increases in those numbers come from population growth in Africa and India, and the increased purchasing power that will arise from nations having historically low interest rates and consistent 3% annual growth globally (pre-COVID).
Taking the different factors into account, the report outlines what we will have to do in order to get to net-zero electricity. Also infrastructure and construction. Also transportation. Also energy and fuel supply. There are many different sectors that are doing things in an unsustainable way. For our way of life to not only continue, but improve, we have to do things differently. But those are sectoral changes that might not affect all of us in our day to day.
So what will change for me?
Well, for citizens writ-large, the emphasis is still on improving quality of life. Almost 800 million people still don't have access to electricity. Over 2.5 billion don't have access to clean cooking. But again those are big problems. Problems solved by access to a main power grid, or by creating stand alone grids that are 100% renewable. Or providing people with stoves and other avenues of cooking that can burn biomass or ethanol.
The same goes for pollution. We have a tremendous pollution problem. Over 90% of people are exposed to polluted air everyday. But this is an enormous problem that requires years of reduced emissions and a dedicated long term clean up effort for the waste we have already created. Once key toxins are not being released into the air so relentlessly, will subside and our air will be much cleaner.
What about costs? This will certainly be something that affects us, right? Yes! Absolutely!
Right now, energy costs are about 4% of the typical household costs. But with more of our lives becoming “electrified” (think cars, lawnmowers, high speed rail) the cost of our energy will decrease.
Expect your oil and natural gas expenditures, which right now make up 60-75% of your energy bill, to go to almost - if not entirely - zero. Transportation will almost certainly be a cornerstone of changes we will see.
These changes in total will probably about halve the cost of energy for the typical household.
For the “Net-Zero by 2050” plan to work, electric vehicles will have to entirely replace our current system; regional flights will have to be replaced with high-speed rail; and urban areas will have to be redesigned so that walking, biking, or other means of zero emission travel are way more encouraged. The way cities are laid out can change to create clustered areas to reduce the distance you have to go to get everything you might need in a trip.
This transformation is likely to be one of the biggest you will see personally. Buying a new vehicle is usually the second biggest purchase in a person's life (behind only their home), and this will have a whole new set of things to learn about it, which won't always be seamless. Travel on planes is one of the worst things we do for the environment; jet fuel is a horrendous pollutant and planes are not exactly at “Prius-level” when it comes to fuel efficiency. So when you take a short flight (think less than 2 hours), that will have to become a high-speed rail trip, which most infrastructure on those projects hasn't even begun.
As an individual
As individuals, we will not only have a responsibility as citizens, but also as entrepreneurs, business leaders, employees, and consumers as well. We will have the ability to opt for more eco-friendly options or choose the electric vehicle. But we also will have the choice to put up our corner store on the corner that doesn't have one, and not across from the already-in-place 7/11. Not a jab at 7/11, but by putting your future businesses and projects in the area where your consumers can easily access your goods and services, you can significantly reduce your community’s carbon footprint. Clustering shopping areas to provide a one-stop-shop provides the shopper the opportunity not to go all around town looking for 5 different items. It's not something that should be the sole reason to place a business in a specific location, because I know market fit and easy access to your product and brand is vital. But if decisions like that are part of your culture, it benefits everyone.
The moral of the story is that most of the changes in this climate crisis are going to be big changes that we will hear about, but might never be a part of. But our role is still there, and we still have to play it.
